The Phoenix Agents » Market Analysis & Stats

Distressed Activity by Month – November 2011

Chris Butterworth — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 13:48:37 +0000

THE GRAPH HAS INVERTED! There are some significant changes to the graphs this month. Finally! (my thoughts below the charts)

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 – New Bank Owned Listings – (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

Chart 2 – New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance. The bank will need to approve the sale.)

Chart 3 – New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

Chart 4 – New Vacant Listings (new listings which are vacant homes. While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

Now the Sales – I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 – Home Sales by Type of Owner

Chart 6 – Home Sales by Type of Occupant

I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

Chart 1 – New Bank-Owned listings are falling off the chart. Finally! From over 5,000 in March, 2009, to consistently between 2,000 and 3,000 for the last year, to the last few months being under 2,000. And now we’re approaching the 1,000 mark. This is great news.

Chart 4 – New Vacant Listings are also trending steeply in the right direction.

Chart 5 – November was the first month in well over 3 years where there were more sales of traditional / equity owned homes than bank-owned homes!

Now, before we get too carried away and think the market has recovered, there are still some sobering numbers in the above charts:

Chart 1 – there are still more than 1,000 new foreclosures hitting the market each month. That’s a lot of people losing their home.

Chart 4 – 3,500 new listings are vacant; that’s not the sign of a normal market.

Chart 5 – I’m willing to wager that 2/3 (or more) of the equity sellers are investors who bought foreclosures a couple/few months ago and are selling the homes today. These aren’t the regular mom & pop families selling their home in order to go buy a larger or smaller home down the street.

Chart 6 – There are still far more vacant than occupied homes changing hands. Again, this isn’t the sign of a market which has recovered.

Overall, we’re definitely headed in the right direction. Fewer bank-involved listings will translate into fewer vacant listings and fewer investor buyers down the road. This month marks a big step forward in the right direction, but there are many more steps to be taken..

Your feeling a little more optimistic today Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Distressed Activity by Month – November 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

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Maricopa County Sales Charts – November 2011

Chris Butterworth — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 14:27:05 +0000

This month’s charts look good, especially for this time of year. # of Sales is down a little bit, but that’s just seasonality – it’s actually higher than it was a year ago. In addition, Average Sales Price and Average $/Sqft are trending upwards, while Average Days on Market is trending downward. All good signs.

Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide. I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year..

Specific Zip Code reports are now available! If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.

and now, on to the reports. (click each chart to embiggen)

Number of Homes Sold by Month

Average Sold Price

Average Price per Square Foot

Average Number of Days on Market

** The data for all these charts represents Single Family Homes sold in Maricopa County via the MLS. All data was pulled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, and is thought to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Please do not make any life-changing decisions based solely on the information contained herein.

Questions, comments, suggestions? Please give us a call/email anytime – we’d love to hear from you!

Your keeping an eye on the trends Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts – November 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

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Distressed Activity by Month – October 2011

Chris Butterworth — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 12:05:00 +0000

I like the look of these charts! (Best trending we’ve seen in 3 years..)

This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end. I hope you enjoy it…

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 – New Bank Owned Listings – (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

Now the Sales – I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 – Home Sales by Type of Owner

Chart 6 – Home Sales by Type of Occupant

I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

Although it’s painfully slow, the charts show we’re definitely moving in the right direction. (especially the listing charts.)

Chart 1 shows the first time we’ve had less than 1,500 new bank-owned listings hit the market.

Chart 3 shows the 2nd time we’ve had less than 4,000 new bank-owned plus short-sale listings.

Chart 4 shows the first time we’ve had less than 4,000 new vacant listings.

And on the Sales side, Chart 5 shows the type of seller was more evenly distributed than we’ve had since I started tracking this stuff in early 2009.

So, we’re on the road to recovery. How long the trip will take is still anyone’s guess…

Your happy to see we’re heading in the right direction Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Distressed Activity by Month – October 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

Maricopa County Sales Charts – October 2011

Chris Butterworth — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 13:34:09 +0000

Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide. I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year.

While the number of homes sold is following its seasonal trend downward in the fall, it’s still up 17% from the same month last year, indicating continued strong sales volume. This is echoed by the Average Days on Market chart, which shows homes are selling 10 days faster than they were at this time last year.

Specific Zip Code reports are available! If you’d like to see how the sales activity in your zip code compares with the county as a whole, just click here to sign up, and you’ll receive your zip code report via email each month.

and now, on to the reports. (click each chart to embiggen)

Number of Homes Sold by Month

Average Sold Price

Average Price per Square Foot

Average Number of Days on Market

Questions, comments, suggestions? Please give us a call/email anytime – we’d love to hear from you!

Your keeping an eye on the trends Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts – October 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

Heather — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 12:56:08 +0000

Market Update through the end of October 2011. Please note that the Valley Wide graph represents all of the MLS.

(you can click on the chart to see a bigger version)

This chart shows you the percentage of distressed properties that are being listed and sold.

Short Sales represent 29% of the Closings for October (compared to 26% in September)
Short Sales represent 37% of the active Listings currently on the market.
Distressed Sales (Short Sales and REOs combined) accounted for 64% of the total sales for October.
The listing success rate for Short Sales is 60.0%!

is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Heather Barr is a Realtor and a happy workaholic. She eats more than someone her size ought to be able, and is a runner as a consequence. Her TiVo's full of spy thrillers, police procedurals and Whedonesque sci-fi.

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Phoenix area housing statistics

Heather — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 16:32:08 +0000

Here are a few charts from the Cromford Report website that show the most current statistics on the Phoenix-area housing market. All figures are for metro Phoenix Arizona through the first 10 days or so of November 2011, and all types of housing (condo, detached home, patio/town home) are included.

These are charts for Days on Market and total dollar Volume of home Sales.

Days on Market, metro Phoenix AZ, Nov 2011

Total Volume of Sales, metro Phoenix AZ, Nov 2011

On the top graphic, you can see that time on market — an indicator of both sellers picking the right price and buyers wanting to buy — is dropping. That’s generally a good thing, and it’s watched as an overall indicator of market health. Three to six months on the market is considered about “normal”; more is a buyer’s market, less is a seller’s market.

The red line chart on the bottom graphic shows the typical bump in sales activity in the summer. But the blue line chart to the right shows that sales volume is higher year-over-year than this time last year. In other words, our summer sales growth left us at a higher point that this time last year, selling more homes overall.

Our buyers are writing multiple offers before getting one accepted, but sellers are still generally willing to pay closing costs. What have you been seeing when you’re shopping for homes? How many offers are you writing on homes before you get one accepted? Are sellers still willing to pay buyer’s closing costs? We’d like to hear your feedback, please leave a comment.

Phoenix area housing statistics is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

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Maricopa County Sales Charts – September 2011

Chris Butterworth — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 12:36:00 +0000

Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide. I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year.

As far as trending, nothing much to report. I don’t see anything in this month’s charts that makes me sit up and take notice.

and now, on to the reports. (click each chart to embiggen)

Number of Homes Sold by Month

Average Sold Price

Average Price per Square Foot

Average Number of Days on Market

Questions, comments, suggestions? Please give us a call/email anytime – we’d love to hear from you!

Your keeping an eye on the trends Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts – September 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

Distressed Activity by Month – September 2011

Chris Butterworth — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 13:42:13 +0000

Lots of information showing we’re heading in the right direction, but we’re still a long way from “recovered.”

This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end. I hope you enjoy it…

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 – New Bank Owned Listings – (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

Now the Sales – I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 – Home Sales by Type of Owner

Chart 6 – Home Sales by Type of Occupant

I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

Chart 1 shows a distinct downward trend in the number of new bank-owned listings to hit the market. September had the fewest number of bank-owned listings since I started keeping track, and the last 2 months have both been under 2,000 units.

Chart 3 shows a similar downward trend, although not quite as drastic. This chart includes Short Sales along with bank-owned listings. Short sales have not decreased as much as bank-owned, but September was the first month the number of short sale & bank-owned listings was less than 4,000.

Chart 4 shows the number of vacant listings has steadily decreased over the last year, with September’s 4,113 being the lowest point on the chart.

Chart 5 shows we had almost as many traditional “equity” sales as we had bank-owned sales last month. We had a similar closeness a couple times in 2010, but for the most part the bank-owned sales have dwarfed the traditional sales. However, we’re still looking for our first inversion point..

Chart 6 shows us how far away we are from being in a normal market. There were 3 times as many vacant properties changing hands as those which are occupied.

We’re still heading in the right direction, but we’ve got a long way to go.

Your watching & waiting Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Distressed Activity by Month – September 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

Distressed Activity by Month – August 2011

Chris Butterworth — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 13:39:13 +0000

A look at the new listing charts this month shows the trend is continuing in the right direction. However, a look at the numbers on the charts shows we’re still a ways off from being recovered. (same story, different month!)

This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end. I hope you enjoy it…

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 – New Bank Owned Listings – (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

Now the Sales – I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 – Home Sales by Type of Owner

Chart 6 – Home Sales by Type of Occupant

I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

A couple of pieces of good news:

On the bank-owned front, this was the first time since I began tracking this activity that we’ve had less than 2,000 new bank-owned listings. (chart 1)

Also, there were more bank-owned homes sold than listed, which continued the recent trend.

Overall, we’re still showing a large number of sales each month, which is preventing the inventory from building up and helping to keep prices from falling further.

But it’s not all good news:

There were over 4,500 new vacant listings this month. 4,500 – that’s a lot. No way the term recovery can be considered with that many vacant homes hitting the market each month.

Short sales showed the opposite relationship from bank-owned; more short sale listings than sales.

There hasn’t been much change in the ratio of bank-owned, short sales, and traditional (equity) sales since the summer of 2009.

Again, same thing I say seemingly every month – it’s great that sales activity is so high, and we’re clearing the market of so many distressed listings each month. But the market won’t start recovering until there are fewer distressed listings each month.

Your waiting patiently, ‘cause it’s all he can do Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Distressed Activity by Month – August 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like:

Rapidly dwindling inventory of bank owned homes in metro Phoenix

Heather — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 12:06:25 +0000

In his September 15^th market summary Mike Orr of Cromford Report said

We are projecting about 4,500 new foreclosure notices during September, a drop of some 16% from August and about 2,850 trustee sales, a drop of about 21%. Part of the drop is because September has 9% fewer working days (21) than August (23).

Nevertheless it still looks like the foreclosure tide is on its way out, and the inventory of bank owned homes continues to fall, as does the count of pending foreclosures.

Context: In the 30days preceding Mr. Orr’s report, there were 8,763 properties sold in the greater Phoenix metro region. As of September 20, 2011 there are 19,241 properties listed for sale in the area. Nineteen thousand, plus forty-five hundred, minus nearly nine thousand… equals not enough homes for sale in a mere couple of months.

You can sign up for the highly respected and frequently dead-on accurate Cromford Report for a nominal fee for a 3month membership. Last I checked I think it was $90 for 3 months. WELL worth it.

By the way, I completely agree with Mr. Orr. The foreclosure tide is on it’s way out. My investors looking for bank owned homes in the under $125,000 price range are having a devilish time finding and getting the right home. Multiple offers, bidding wars, paying over asking price. If you’re shopping under $75,000, triple that difficulty level.

Rapidly dwindling inventory of bank owned homes in metro Phoenix is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

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Maricopa County Sales Charts – August 2011

Chris Butterworth — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 13:33:55 +0000

Here’s a look at the recent trends county-wide. I’m pulling a rolling 13-month history so we can see the last year’s trends plus a comparison of this month to the same month last year.

Looking at the numbers, homes are still selling at a very brisk pace – near record levels. And it’s a very good thing they are, because even with that heavy demand, prices are still trending downward. It sort of defies the laws of economics right now. We’ll have to see what happens to bank activity, and the market as a whole, in the coming months. (especially if the economy slows down even further..)

and now, on to the reports. (click each chart to embiggen)

Number of Homes Sold by Month

Average Sold Price

Average Price per Square Foot

Average Number of Days on Market

Questions, comments, suggestions? Please give us a call/email anytime – we’d love to hear from you!

Your eyes wide open trends Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

Maricopa County Sales Charts – August 2011 is a post written by The Phoenix Agents at Thompson's Realty. If you're reading this anywhere other than a feedreader (rss subscription) of ThePhoenixAgents.com, the site you're reading this on is guilty of copyright infringement.

Chris Butterworth is: Realtor. Analyst. Husband. Father. Writer. Amateur Photographer. Triathlete. Soccer Dad. Big fan of technology, efficiency, and the Arizona Wildcats.

Other posts you might like: