Forbes.com published an online article yesterday saying there are early signs that the economic recovery is coming, and it’s coming soon.
Their evidence? Commodity prices and transportation price indices are rebounding from recent gutter-level lows. These include oil, copper, nickel and aluminum, and the Baltic Freight Index. They also argue that this year’s awful winter weather throughout most of the US is artificially suppressing demand for retail items and even for houses: “It’s hard to start [looking at] houses, or even go shopping, when the temperatures are in single digits and the snow is not being removed from anything other than main roads.”
Says Forbes: “Some early warning signals suggest that despite real GDP weakness, an economic recovery should start taking hold by mid-year.”
That’s the sunniest economic forecast I’ve seen in many a month. And coming from supply-side freemarketers no less!
Well, what’s going on in metro Phoenix’s economy and housing markets? Check out my Sunday Stats from this week which includes historical housing sales data going back to 2000, and a breakdown by ZIP code. See Chris Butterworth’s post spotlighting MSNBC’s reporting that says Phoenix is one of the metro regions where housing is on the mend. Another upside is that while the housing news seems to be 100% gloom all the time, housing prices are falling, making homes easier to purchase.
Heather Barr is a Realtor and a happy workaholic. She eats more than someone her size ought to be able, and is a runner as a consequence. Her TiVo's full of spy thrillers, police procedurals and Whedonesque sci-fi.
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Forbes also said (in their magazine’s January 12th, ’09 issue), in addressing research they had Moody’s Economy.com perform for them, that the greater Phx. area home price tailspin will be continuing in 2009.
By how much more will home prices drop? That’s obviously anyone’s guess. But the research Forbes cited predicted another substantial price drop for us here again this year.
How much? Another 31% drop!
They do predict a “price bottom” for us by late this year.
Don’t get me wrong–I AM bullish on grtr. Phx. area real estate; it always bounces back better (higher prices) than before–when it does finally come back.
Plus– on the optimistic side- I cannot find a period of time in the last 50 years in the USA where we had these low of prices (adjusted for inflation) AND at the same time we had (now have) such amazingly low interest rates, equating to AWESOME affordability.
Lastly, sales (through ARMLS) closed did jump in January ’09 to 4,726 (that is about as close to a “normal Jan. as we get) from only 2,867 in January 2008–so that it VERY promising indeed!!!
I love your blog; you and Chris are fantastic!
All the best–ALWAYS!
JZ