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Economics

Isn’t this a set of interesting statistics?

In 2005, 46% of consumers who opened a new mortgage had a FICO score less than 700. In 2008 this percentage had dropped to 25% . Fair Isaac (creators of the FICO score) reports that borrowers in the Northeast continually present the least amount of default risk nationally for real estate loans.

It’s good news that creditworthiness increased in the last few years. I know someone who actually got a mortgage offer in the mail for their dog in 2005. Their dog! <le sigh>

It’s pretty common wisdom that the foreclosure rates need to fall in order for a real recovery in real estate to happen. Maybe the 2008 and beyond buyers who were more creditworthy won’t default on their mortgages and we’re near the light at the end of the tunnel. On the other hand, if the dismal unemployment rate continues, that’ll mean more foreclosures and more uncertainty in the market.

Wishing I had a crystal ball. . . .

(stats provided by Rob Chrisman of Mortgage News Daily)


heather

Heather Barr is a Realtor. She's a chow hound, a gym rat, and the only political junkie in the USA who can actually keep her political views to herself. Instead, she focuses on educating her clients about the often-confusing world of residential real estate.

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The global Great Recession.  European Countries facing default.  The United States running unimaginable deficits.  Many states facing potential default, including Arizona.  Cities and Municipalities struggling with their own deficits.  Everyone, everywhere, knows we are in deep $^!t, yet precious little is being done.  When is somebody going to stand up & do the right thing, political backlash and re-election be damned?

Enter Chris Christie, the new governor of New Jersey.

Christie spoke recently to a group of approximately 200 mayors at the New Jersey League of Municipalities.  He spoke candidly.  He spoke the truth.  He spoke with the common sense we all know about but rarely ever hear.  He made sense.  And he sounded awesome!

Here is a link to see his 24 minute speech on public television.

http://njn.net/television/webcast/ontherecord.html 

Here is a partial transcript of the speech.

In the time we got here, of the approximately $29 billion budget there was only $14 billion left. Of the $14 billion, $8 billion could not be touched because of contracts with public worker unions, because of bond covenants, because of commitments we made accepting stimulus money. So we had to find a way to save $2.3 billion in a $6 billion pool of money.

When I went into the treasurer’s off in the first two weeks of my term, there was no happy meetings. They presented me with 378 possible freezes and lapses to be able to balance the budget. I accepted 375 of them.

There is a great deal of discussion about me doing that by executive action. Every day that went by was a day where money was going out the door such that the $6 billion pool was getting less and less. So something needed to be done.

People did not send me here to talk, the people sent me here to do. So we took the executive action we did to stop the bleeding.

As we move forward, and we evaluate what we need to do three weeks from now in our fiscal year 2011 budget address, you all need to understand the context from which we operate.

Our citizens are already the most overtaxed in America. US mayors hear it all the time. You know that the public appetite for ever increasing taxes has reached an end.

So when we freeze $475 million in school aid, I am hearing the reverberations from school boards saying now you are just going to force us to raise taxes.

Well there is a 4% cap in place as you all know, yet school boards continue to give out raises which exceed that cap, just on salary. Not to mention the fact that most of them get no contribution towards the spiraling increase in health care benefits.

Now, we are going to reduce spending at the state level. And we are going to continue to reduce it because we have no choice but to do so. Our obligation to you is twofold. One, is to let you know that. So I’m’ letting you know that.

Second to work with the legislature to give you the tools helping you to reduce spending at the municipal level. Now the pension and benefit reform package that was passed unanimously in the senate this week begins to give you some of those tools.

But it is only a beginning.

Do we need to change some of the rules of arbitration to level the playing field to allow municipalities and school boards to have a more level sense of collective bargaining?

I think the evidence of ever increasing raises being given to public sector workers as a result of the arbitration system tells us that we do. [Applause From Mayors]

But you have to stand up and give the support to the legislators in this building to get them to do that. I can guarantee you this, that more pension and benefit reforms which I will consider arbitration reform to be one of them, are things that when they come to my desk, they will be signed. [Applause From Mayors]

Because we can no longer continue on a path where we say we are going to reduce spending at the state level but we are not going to give you any tools to do that at the municipal level and the school board level.

By the same token I am tired of hearing school superintendents and school board members complain that there are no other options than raising property taxes. There are other options.

You know, Marlboro, after a two year negotiation, they give a five year contract giving 4.5% annual salary increases to the teachers, with no contribution, zero contribution to health care benefits.

But I am sure there are people in Marlboro who have lost their jobs, who have had their homes foreclosed on, and who cannot keep a roof over their family’s head there is something wrong.

You know, at some point there has to be parity. There has to be parity between what is happening in the real world, and what is happening in the public sector world. The money does not grow on trees outside this building or outside your municipal building. It comes from the hard working people of our communities who are suffering and are hurting right now.

I heard someone in the legislature say two days ago that they wanted no fare hike in New Jersey Transit, no cuts in service, and no cuts in subsidy. And I was thinking to myself, man I should have made this guy treasurer. [Laughter] Because if you can pull that one off, you’re obviously magic.

This is the type of awful political rhetoric that people sent me to this city to stop.

I would love to be able to do that, but I can’t. I would love to tell you that municipal aid will stay level, but it’s not. And it’s not because we don’t have the money. So you need to prepare. You need to prepare for what’s coming down the line because we have no choice but to do these things.

And so we need to get honest with each other. In this instance, the political class,for which unfortunately all of us are a member of, the political class is lagging behind the public on this. The public is ready to hear that tough choices have to be made. They’re not going to like it. Don’t confuse the two. But they are ready to hear the truth.

In fact, they find it refreshing to hear the truth.

They are tired of hearing, don’t worry I can spare you from the pain, because they have been hearing that for a decade, as we have borrowed and spent and taxed our way into oblivion.

We have done every quick fix in the book that you can do. And now we are left, literally holding the bag.

Leadership should be about making tough decisions. I’m not hear to tell you that anything you are going to have to do as mayors, council people will be easy. But I firmly believe after spending the last year traveling around the state of New Jersey, talking to regular citizens, that this is what they are expecting us to do.

They are also expecting us to ferret out waste and abuse. But they also know that old song that waste and abuse is going to balance the budget is an old and tired one, and it’s not going to.

Now we are going to have a fight about COAH. And I have engaged in that fight and I have engaged in it directly. Not only will I be fighting COAH, I will be fighting the courts too. [Applause From Mayors]

That’s OK.

We need to understand we are all in this together. And you know, all of you know in your heart, what I am saying is true. You all know that these raises that are being given to public employees of all stripes, we cannot afford. You all know the state cannot continue to spend money it does not have. And you all know that the appetite for tax increases among our constituents has come to an end.

And so the path to reform and success is clear. We know what it is. We just have to have the courage to go there. What we are doing is showing people that government can work again for them, not for us. Government has worked for the political class for much too long.

There’s no time left. We have no room left to borrow. We have no room left to tax. So we merely have room left now, to do this. We are all reaching the edge of a cliff. And it reminds me a bit of that part of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid where the had a seminal decision to make. So what did they do? They held hands and they jumped off the cliff.

We have to hold hands at every level of government, state county, municipal, school board. We have to hold hands and jump off the cliff.

I firmly believe we will land and we will be fine. It does not mean it will not be a scary ride on the way down. And it does not mean there won’t be moments of fear and moments of apprehension.

But for certain, the troops of the decades of overspending and overborrowing and overtaxing have gained on us. So the ruination of New Jersey’s economy, and of the quality of life we want all our citizens to have, is certain if we do not take this course.

It’s time for us to hold hands and jump off the cliff. It’s time for us to do the difficult things that need to be done and to stop playing the petty politics of yesterday, of lying to the people telling them they do not have to pay for it because someone else will.

We are going to make the leap because that’s what people elected me to do. We are going to make the leap because it is the responsible thing to do. We are going to make the leap and we are going to do it together because that is what leadership demands for us. That is what the responsibility of the offices we hold requires of us.

Forget about the next election. Forget about the next editorial in the newspaper, and forget about the next angry letter or phone call you are going to get from someone who wants something for nothing.

One thing is certain. The alternative will lead to certain defeat. And so it is time for us to show courage, and resolve. And we can do it because we are from New Jersey. And I have never, in all my travels around the country, met a group of tougher people than we all have the opportunity to lead.

Thanks to Mike “Mish” Shedlock for sharing this with us.

I don’t normally talk politics on this blog, but I’ll tell you what – the sooner we get our collective financial houses in order, the sooner we have a true, full economic recovery.  And this is an awesome step in the right direction, and hopefully a model for other leaders to follow.

Your wouldn’t mind seeing an honest, action-oriented guy like Christie running for president Realtor,

Chris Butterworth


chris

Chris Butterworth is a Realtor. He's also a husband, father, writer, amateur photographer, and self-proclaimed tech junkie. And he's an all-around good guy!

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All The News That’s Fit to Shock

by Heather February 1, 2010 In The News

The news media are all shouting this morning, mindlessly spewing more bad news . . .
December Existing Home Sales dropped 16.7%!
Well, yes existing home sales did fall in December. Home sales typically drop in December. December is usually kind of cold and snowy and icy, ya know? Then there’s that whole pesky holiday season which [...]

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Local Safeway Closing

by Chris Butterworth January 25, 2010 In The News

I’m not sure whether to file this under “a sign of the times” of “serves them right.”

The Safeway around the corner from my house has an ideal location; it’s in the center of a residential neighborhood of approx. 5,500 homes.  It has only one other competitor (Frys) nearby, another competitor (Albertsons) on the other [...]

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Banks’ Bonuses Explained

by Chris Butterworth January 15, 2010 Op Ed

Jon Stewart at The Daily Show helps make the whole process easier to understand..
(just shy of 5 minutes – funny and frustrating at the same time.)
 

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c

Clusterf#@k to the Poor House - Wall Street Bonuses

www.thedailyshow.com

Daily Show [...]

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Home Buyer Tax Credit, Explained

by Heather January 13, 2010 Buyer Help

(image by stock.xchng user woodsy, image ID 1066491)
This is a link to the best darn explanation of the federal home buyer credit I’ve seen to date. Includes both the $8,000 first time buyer credit and the $6,500 “move up” home buyer credit. Do you qualify? Start shopping here.
Technorati Tags: Phoenix Arizona real estate

Heather Barr [...]

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Update: Home Buyer Tax Credit

by Heather November 4, 2009 Buyer Help

It looks like the fat cats in Washington, D.C. will pull it together and extend the home buyer tax credit. But it’s really anybody’s guess. Here’s a Facebook message I sent just a few minutes ago to a friend who asked.
Q: Will the tax credit be extended?
A:  My gut says probably. Handing out money during [...]

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$8,000 Tax Credit – Timeline for last chance

by Chris Butterworth August 24, 2009 Mortgages

Heather recently reminded us the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers is currently set to expire on 11/30/2009.  This means you need to CLOSE ESCROW, with a HUD-1 Settlement Statement showing your closing date, by November 30th.
 
Photo credit to Stockxpert Woodsy.
Let’s work backwards from there to see when you need to be under contract on [...]

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Economic Indicator Roulette

by Chris Butterworth August 21, 2009 In The News

Skimming through some mainstream news articles this morning..
Bernanke says US economy on cusp of recovery – Yea, good news!  Glad to hear things should start getting better.
Existing home sales jumps to two-year high – More good news.  whew – big sigh of relief!
State jobless rate 9.2% and rising – uh oh.
I was going to use [...]

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$8,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Ends Soon

by Heather August 21, 2009 Mortgages

Image courtesy of StockExchange user woodsy
Don’t miss out on your chance at the US Government’s stimulus money!
The federal government’s $8,000 tax credit to first time homebuyers is slated to end on November 30, 2009.
There’s talk it will be renewed & extended, but nothing concrete yet.
Contrary to The National Association of Realtors’ commercials, now is not [...]

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Recession Takes Toll On Valley

by Heather August 20, 2009 In The News

The Phoenix Business Journal reports on how the recession is affecting the Valley. (all links below to Phx BizJournal articles, except where noted)
The 2009 FBR Open took in receipts of about half what they did in 2008. The Open’s sponsors, The Thunderbirds have about $4.3 million to distribute to Valley charities this year versus last [...]

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Credit.com a Wealth of Info

by Heather August 20, 2009 Lifestyle

If you’re concerned about or confused about credit scores in the New Normal Economy, visit Credit.com.
They’re awesome.
‘Nuff said.

Heather Barr is a Realtor. She’s a chow hound, a gym rat, and the only political junkie in the USA who can actually keep her political views to herself. Instead, she focuses on educating her clients about the [...]

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