Phoenix has historically been a very stable real estate market. Yes, 2005 was beyond anything we could have imagined. And yes, we’ve been paying for our excesses for more than 2 years now, with prices falling to less than the cost of building in many cases.
Have prices fallen too far? Have the investors figured that out, and that’s what’s causing the bank-owned foreclosed homes to be sold as fast as they are hitting the market?
Maybe. In fact, I wrote a post awhile back showing the prices in 2008 didn’t seem too out of line, statistically speaking..
The chart below shows the Average Sold Price for all Single Family Dwellings in Maricopa County, by Month, going back to 1/1/2000.
I took the pricing from 2000, 2001, and 2002 – a very NORMAL period in Phoenix real estate history, and drew a trend line out to today.
The pricing run-up from mid-2003 through 2006 is obvious. However, it does look like prices have over-corrected. Hmmmm. Interesting…
(Click on the chart below to see a full-screen view.)
Your thinks the numbers speaketh the truth Realtor,
Chris Butterworth
Chris Butterworth spends more time analyzing statistics and reading economic reports than is healthy. He's also a husband, father, writer, and amateur photographer. In his spare time he trained for and competed in his first triathlon.
Tagged as:
Month End Stats
I’m just blown away when I look at the numbers. I shouldn’t be, because I ‘feel’ the market everyday with our buyer-clients; the low to mid range priced homes are selling quickly, and buyers (and agents!) are getting frustrated. Now I’m seeing the same story in Excel – it’s hard to argue we’re in tough times when you see these numbers… But I’ll argue it ~
These numbers are fantastic, and I’m happy to see the bank-involved inventory getting cleared so quickly. It means we’ve found a price range where investors can make money and where first-time buyers can buy for the same price as the cost to rent. That means there’s no reason for prices to drop further, which means we may have found a bottom.
However, (here comes the big BUT), these numbers are COMPLETELY skewed by the banks’ business. Traditional sellers who are unable or unwilling to compete with the banks’ pricing are simply not able to sell their homes. Buyers who prefer to buy from a traditional seller instead of a bank are not yet willing to pay the required premium.
Again, great activity, great healing process, but not recovered..
Here are the numbers:
(click image to enlarge)
Look at the total inventory by city – all cities have less than 3 months!
Look at the total inventory by price range – small prices are less than 2 months, and up to $400k is only 5 months. Wow.
Here are the charts from the last couple of quarters, just in case you want to see the trend:
End of Q1 2009
End of Q4 2008
Legal Disclaimer – all numbers were pulled from the ARMLS and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.
Your excited, frustrated, and emotionally & physically drained Realtor,
Chris Butterworth
Chris Butterworth spends more time analyzing statistics and reading economic reports than is healthy. He's also a husband, father, writer, and amateur photographer. In his spare time he trained for and competed in his first triathlon.
Tagged as:
Month End Stats
